E.DILIPRAJ
At the end of the week long referendum from 9th January, 2011 to 15th January, 2011, the possible result is clearly visible that the so far Africa’s largest nation Sudan is probably going to get divided into two - with most of the oil rich regions and fertile lands going to the south whereas the Kartoum lead north would only be left with few oil wells, a sea port and of course the remines of the useless oil pipelines.
The referendum is considered as a great success considering the free and fairness of the voting, and most importantly the percentage of votes casted as that had to play an important role in the referendum. As per the referendum rules there has to be 60% or more number of votes supporting any cause for making it valid. And now that 60% mark has been crossed at the middle of the week and in south Sudan it has been recorded as more than 80% of the voters have casted their votes along with 53% in the north. While the overseas marks grows much higher up to 91% in the eight other countries hosting polling stations.
International observers including the African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) and the United Nations (UN) in Southern Sudan have been almost universally optimistic, saying the balloting process has been free and fair and all the reports on all levels (national to international) before and after the referendum clearly indicate that South Sudanese would only opt for secession from North as they have experienced enough in the two civil wars between Khartoum lead Muslim dominated north Sudan and South Sudan where Christianity and other traditional religions prevail. Second civil war ended in 2005 with the peace agreement in which this referendum was also a part that would decide the fate of 8.26 million (according to a census survey in 2009, refugees abroad and southerners living in north are not included) people of the south.
Now as the referendum polls have all ended smoothly without major unlawful incidents, (although there were a few minor incidents like: an armed group attacked a convoy of trucks of the southern Sudanese passengers who were going to the polling stations, A few police people were killed in an attack near a polling station, and few other very minor incidents in the border regions) the counting of the votes have all began across the country immediately after balloting closed on 15th evening. Counting of ballots kicked off as early as 7 p.m. in various locations, including the Marol polling center of Bor, Jonglei State, located in the Episcopal compound close to the city's power house and main market. In the South Sudan’s regional capital of Juba, polling officials opened the first ballot box at 8.20 p.m. on 15th in the presence of local and international observers and the glare of media cameras at the John Garang Mausoleum Polling Centre. Though final referendum results will be announced by 7 February if there are no appeals from any party, meanwhile UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon had congratulated the Sudanese people "for the display of wisdom, patience, and peaceful determination that has characterized the voting over the last week".
Challenges:
It might look like ALL IS WELL for now for the south, but it is only now the real problem starts. Although there had been a government prevailing in south headed by the former rebellion head and now the president of south Sudan, Salvar Kiir, only after the official declaration of the secession his government would have to probably face the challenge of recognition for his government and recognition is possible only if there are no oppositions from any party regarding the conduct of the referendum, the way the new government forms and the division of the territory.
Apart from secession there is already a prevailing dispute between the North and the south regarding the ownership of the small border state of “Abyei”. This state is rich with oil resources and so both the regions do not want to give away this state to the other hence Abyei has its own referendum that is due to be conducted regarding their accession to either the north or the south. There were even serious clashes between the northern supported militia group and the southern rebels during the referendum week because of which, the voting in Abyei was postponed. Experts believe that if this dispute for Abyei is not addressed now then it will become the “KASHMIR OF SUDAN”.
Though there are a lots of global challenges for the new state like State Recognition, Government Recognition, Identity, citizenship, debts, Allies, Security, Economy, etc which all new state had to face but there are also many unique internal survivability problems for the State of Southern Sudan after their secession that has to be addressed immediately but failed would cause a real chaos.
The first and the foremost challenge faced by South Sudan would be that of food security for the people. According to a House hold health survey taken in 2006 (nothing much have improved till now) except in the regional capital state of Juba all the other states are seriously affected by lack of food and in northeastern states people do not even get one meal a day and even in Juba around 10% of people are with poor food consumption.
The next would be that of Water and Sanitation problems where Southern Sudan is at the bottom level of advancement. Even today there are literally no sanitation facilities in any of the states of southern Sudan, not even in Juba. And regarding the water facilities there is only one river flowing through the State – “The White Nile”, people are only depended on the big open community wells which are highly contaminated for their daily water consumption. It is said that only 5% of people get access to improved water and Sanitation facilities in the whole state of South Sudan.
The Ethnic Demography of Southern Sudan is another big conflicting issue that needs to be addressed. The largest ethnic group is Dinka which has around 33% of the total population occupies the central and the parts of northeastern region. The settlement of Dinka people is of great importance because it is in these regions the whole future economy of South Sudan lies in the form of oil. The Next big denomination is that of the Nuer people with around 15% of the total population occupying the central and the eastern parts of the territory. The Azande is the next ethnic group with around 10% of the total population that has its settlement in the southwestern part of the territory. The Bari Ethnic group which constituents around 9% of the total population lives in the State of Juba which is the proposed capital city of Southern Sudan. So It is there prevails a threat whether other ethnic communities would be represented in the government or will it only be the Baris who are occupying the whole of Juba state and around. Apart from all these there is one more ethnic group called Shiluk/ Anwak which has strength of around 10% of the total population but they have settled in packets all around the state. There are also some small settlements of Arabs of around 1% in the northern and in the northwestern parts of Southern Sudan whose counterparts are the the major dominators of the Khartoum lead North Sudan with more than 70% of the total population. There are even other small tribal groups apart from all these ethnic tribes which all together would constitute around 5% of the total population.
When these exist there are also other livelihood problems like the infant mortalitiy and basic education. Regarding education according to the last house hold report in 2006, not more than 4% of children complete their basic primary education in the state of Southern Sudan irrespective of their settlement in the state. Education which is the most primitive way in which people can be developed is at the bottom most level in the state.
The infant mortality rate is as high as more than 110 for 1000 lives born (life less than 1 year old) in three states of the State and it is otherwise around 70 and more for 1000 lives in all the other regions which is a real worst case scenario.
The next major factor is the economy where the whole new state is relying upon the oil wells in the northern most part of the state. There is already a plan for exporting oil from Juba to Lamu, Kenya through pipelines which are brought through pipes from the oil wells to the capital. The threat is the security for these pipelines inside th state because of the demographic distribution of the ethnic community.
Conclusion:
Though the state of Southern Sudan is likely to get seceded from its northern counterpart in a peaceful democratic manner, the consequences and the challenges faced by them would not be as easy as they fought the two decade long civil war against the north that ended with the peace agreement in 2005. As Southern Sudan is likely to enjoy the honour of being the 194th sovereign state of the world it from that day of announcement the real hard path begins for them in terms of nation building and development. If the above discussed basic and immediate internal threats are not given immediate and proper attention then there is chance for this nation to become another rouge state. If everything goes fine within the Southern Sudan then the rivalry of north - south has to also be addressed properly because after south’s secession north Sudan will be out of resources for their survival and so it would try to harp upon its rival to revenge for its status.
Whatever happens is going to happen in front of the world and hopefully would be and should be there to help these nations to develop and to cope up with the rest of the world in all aspects.
